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Showing posts from October, 2025

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53.3 Manufacturing PMI and a $40 Billion Backlog: Are the Early Signs of a New Industrial Cycle Emerging?

on July 01, 2026

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Fed’s Latest Stance: A Cut Delivered, But Future Easing “Far From a Foregone Conclusion”

on October 29, 2025

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Reddit Stock Weekly and Daily Charts Show Diverging Signals. Will RDDT Maintain Its Uptrend or Face a Reversal?

on October 28, 2025

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Will Gold (XAUUSD) Sustain Its Upside? Key Technical Levels to Watch This Week

on October 27, 2025

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Indonesia’s Stock Market at a Crossroad: Will Composite Index (IHSG) Break Out or Correct?

on October 26, 2025

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Falling Inflation Reinforces Dovish Fed Tone, Fuels Market Optimism - Risk On

on October 24, 2025

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How Trump’s New Tariff Ultimatum Could Strengthen the Global Risk-Off Trade

on October 21, 2025

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Risk-Off Market Sees Oil at Key Support: Temporary Relief or New Breakdown?

on October 19, 2025

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Gold vs U.S. Dollar (XAUUSD) : Tracking the Correlation Since 1967, Bretton Woods System

The Relationship Between Gold and the U.S. Dollar (1967–2025): A Long-Term Analysis How the U.S. Dollar Impacts Gold Prices Gold and the U.S. dollar have one of the most important relationships in global financial markets. Many investors believe that when the dollar goes up, gold goes down, and when the dollar goes down, gold goes up. This idea is often true, but it is not always simple. Gold is seen as a store of value and a hedge against inflation. The U.S. dollar, on the other hand, is the world’s main reserve currency. Because gold is priced in dollars, changes in the dollar can directly affect gold prices. However, this relationship has changed over time. It was not always a free market. In fact, before the 1970s, gold prices were controlled by governments. This makes the long-term analysis more complex and interesting. In this article, we study the correlation between gold (XAUUSD) and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) from 1967 to 2025. We use long-term historical trends to...

Can Power Supply Keep Up With AI Demand?

Corporate Macro Lens Report Executive Summary Artificial Intelligence is often discussed through the lens of semiconductors, cloud computing, and software innovation. However, a less visible but increasingly important consequence of the AI boom is its growing demand for electricity. As AI adoption accelerates, businesses around the world are investing heavily in data centers, computing infrastructure, and digital capacity. While much attention has focused on the companies building AI systems, a more fundamental question is beginning to emerge: Can power infrastructure expand quickly enough to support the next phase of AI growth? Recent estimates suggest that global data centers currently consume approximately 415 TWh of electricity annually, representing around 1.5% of global electricity demand. By 2030, that figure could rise to approximately 945 TWh, while electricity demand from AI-focused data centers may triple over the same period. For business leaders, the issue is no long...

The 22% Capex Problem: How Strong U.S. Employment Data Could Increase Financing Costs and Delay Corporate Growth

Higher-for-Longer: The Corporate Cost of a Strong Labor Market Executive Summary The latest U.S. labor market data delivered a significant surprise to financial markets. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 172,000 jobs in June, more than double the market consensus of 85,000, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%. The stronger-than-expected employment report suggests that labor market conditions remain resilient despite restrictive monetary policy. As a result, expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts may continue to be pushed further into the future, reinforcing the risk of a higher-for-longer interest rate environment. While market participants often focus on the immediate impact on Treasury yields and equity valuations, the more important implication for businesses may be the persistence of elevated financing costs. Higher borrowing costs can affect capital expenditure decisions, refinancing activities, liquidity management, and long-term corporate strategy. For orga...

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Darrisman's: Macro Intelligence & External Risk Interpretation Welcome to Darrisman Research. We provide institutional-style analysis focused on macroeconomic conditions, external risk developments, and their implications for corporate strategy, valuation, and business environments in Indonesia. Our approach emphasizes structured interpretation over speculation, helping decision-makers better understand cost pressures, liquidity conditions, inflation, FX risks, and evolving global dynamics.

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