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Walmart (WMT) Technical Analysis: Daily & Weekly Chart Signals for Swing Traders Amid Fed’s Hawkish Cut and Stagflation Risks
Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT), the world’s largest retailer, remains a stock closely watched by both institutional and retail traders. In times of economic uncertainty, Walmart often plays a dual role: as a defensive stock benefiting from consumer staples demand, and as a bellwether for broader retail spending trends. Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve’s surprising “hawkish cut” and rising stagflation fears, analyzing Walmart’s price action offers swing traders unique insights into both near-term setups and longer-term positioning.
This article explores Walmart’s technical signals on the daily and weekly charts, while also framing them within the macroeconomic context of sticky inflation, resilient retail sales, and a weakening labor market.
Macro Backdrop: The Fed’s Hawkish Cut and Stagflation Fears
The Federal Reserve recently executed a 25 basis point rate cut, but far from reassuring markets, the move rattled investors. Inflation remains above target, retail sales are unexpectedly strong, and yet the labor market is softening. The decision to cut rates while inflation is still elevated has left markets with a troubling question: is the Fed inadvertently signaling surrender to stagflation?
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Inflation remains sticky. Prices are not falling as quickly as policymakers had hoped, with core measures still uncomfortably high. By cutting rates in this environment, the Fed risks undermining its credibility.
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Retail sales are resilient. Consumer demand continues to hold strong, a factor that should typically justify tighter, not looser, policy. For companies like Walmart, this resilience suggests steady sales but also heightened inflation pressures on margins.
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Labor market weakens. Job creation is slowing, unemployment is inching up, and cracks are forming in the once-robust employment engine.
This combination, high inflation, strong retail spending, but weakening employment, is the classic recipe for stagflation. For swing traders, such an environment tends to increase volatility, making technical signals even more critical.
Walmart Daily Chart: Short-Term Bearish Pressure
On the daily timeframe, Walmart appears to be facing bearish momentum in the short run.
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Price Action
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After rallying towards the $104 level, WMT has pulled back and now hovers around $102–103.
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This level coincides with a previous supply zone, making it a difficult barrier to break decisively without stronger momentum.
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Stoch RSI
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The indicator is firmly in the overbought zone (above 80–90), suggesting limited upside in the immediate term.
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A rollover from these levels has historically coincided with short-term pullbacks in WMT.
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MACD
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The MACD line is flattening while still above the signal line, reflecting a loss of bullish momentum.
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If a bearish crossover occurs, it could trigger further downside pressure.
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Support & Resistance
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Resistance: $104–106 remains a tough ceiling.
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Support: Immediate support lies around $100, followed by a stronger base at $96.
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* Takeaway for Swing Traders (Daily):
The daily chart leans bearish, suggesting a possible pullback or consolidation before any meaningful breakout. Short-term traders might look for entries closer to support zones, rather than chasing the stock at current levels.
Walmart Weekly Chart: Bullish Trend Intact, But Resistance Looms
While the daily chart flashes short-term caution, the weekly chart tells a more optimistic story for longer-term swing positions.
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Price Action
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WMT has been in a steady uptrend since mid-2022, forming a consistent pattern of higher highs and higher lows.
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The current challenge lies at the $104–106 resistance area, which has capped rallies multiple times.
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Stoch RSI
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The weekly Stoch RSI sits in the mid-zone (~40–60), suggesting room for further upside.
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Unlike the overbought daily signal, the weekly still indicates potential continuation of the broader bullish trend.
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MACD
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The MACD remains in positive territory, with the line above zero, though momentum is modest.
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This setup implies that while upside strength is not explosive, the underlying trend remains constructive.
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Support & Resistance
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Resistance: $104–106 is the key breakout zone. A successful push above this range could unlock targets at $110–115.
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Support: Strong support lies at $96, with a more significant floor around $90.
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* Takeaway for Swing Traders (Weekly):
The weekly chart favors trend continuation, as long as WMT can eventually clear the $104–106 resistance area. Failure to break higher could mean prolonged consolidation, but the overall bias remains bullish compared to the daily timeframe.
Reconciling Daily and Weekly Views
The apparent contradiction between the daily bearish signals and the weekly bullish trend is not unusual. For swing traders, this duality creates both caution and opportunity:
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Short-Term (Days to Weeks): Expect potential pullbacks as daily indicators suggest overbought conditions. Risk management is crucial here, as entering near resistance carries higher downside risk.
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Medium-Term (Weeks to Months): The broader uptrend remains intact. Swing traders could look to accumulate positions near strong support zones ($96–100), aiming for a breakout above $106 with targets near $110–115.
This setup illustrates the value of multi-timeframe analysis. A daily pullback may simply provide the entry point for aligning with the longer-term weekly trend.
Market Sentiment and Peer Comparison
The Fed’s rate cut has introduced fresh volatility across asset classes:
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Bond yields rose despite the cut, reflecting market skepticism of Fed policy.
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Tech stocks weakened, with the Nasdaq under pressure due to rate sensitivity.
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Consumer staples like Walmart often shine in risk-off environments, though upside is typically steadier rather than explosive.
Compared to high-beta sectors, Walmart offers defensiveness with measured upside, a characteristic many swing traders value in choppy macro environments.
Strategy Considerations for Swing Traders
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Watch Key Levels Closely
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Resistance: $104–106 (potential breakout zone).
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Support: $100 and $96 (buy zones on pullbacks).
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Time Entries with Daily Chart Signals
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Avoid chasing WMT at overbought daily levels.
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Look for pullbacks toward support before entering long positions.
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Align with Weekly Trend
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Weekly chart suggests room for continuation. Swing traders should keep the medium-term bias in mind when sizing trades.
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Macro Overlay
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Factor in stagflation risks and Fed policy shifts. Defensive positioning could keep Walmart relatively supported, but volatility remains a risk.
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Final Thoughts
Walmart’s technical setup presents a nuanced picture for swing traders. The daily chart warns of short-term overbought conditions and potential pullbacks, while the weekly chart points to an intact bullish trend that could resume if resistance at $104–106 is cleared.
Amid the Fed’s hawkish cut and stagflation fears, Walmart occupies a unique position. It may benefit from resilient consumer demand in staples, but faces margin pressures if inflation persists and the labor market weakens further. For swing traders, the strategy may lie in waiting for pullbacks near support, aligning with the broader uptrend, and carefully managing risk in a volatile macro environment.
In other words, patience and precision matter most. Walmart may not offer explosive returns, but in uncertain times, steady upside with strong support levels can be just as valuable.
Disclaimer:
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Stock market investments involve risks, including the potential loss of capital. Readers should conduct their own research or consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The analysis provided is based on publicly available data and technical indicators, and no specific outcomes are guaranteed.
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