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Bitcoin Technical Analysis for Swing Traders: Key Support Levels Under Stagflation Risks

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NASDAQ 100 Technical Analysis for Swing Traders: Key Levels and Signals from Daily & Weekly Charts

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Nasdaq 100 Faces Critical Test: Technical Signals Clash with Fed’s Hawkish Cut

The Nasdaq 100 index (NDX) has been on an impressive climb throughout 2025, extending its long-term uptrend to reach new heights near the 24,200–24,400 zone. Yet, beneath the surface of this rally, cracks are beginning to emerge. Technical indicators suggest momentum may be waning just as macroeconomic conditions are sending contradictory signals. The Federal Reserve’s recent hawkish cut has injected uncertainty into markets, raising the specter of stagflation. This article examines the Nasdaq’s daily and weekly technical charts alongside the broader policy and economic backdrop to assess whether the index is poised for a breakout or a reversal.

Daily Chart Analysis: Momentum Showing Fatigue

On the daily chart, the Nasdaq 100 is pressing against resistance around 24,200–24,300. While the index has remained resilient, the indicators tell a more cautious story:

  • Stoch RSI Overbought: The Stoch RSI has surged to 94.68, deep in overbought territory. The oscillator line is starting to curl downward, hinting that upward momentum is fading. Historically, such readings have often preceded short-term pullbacks.

  • MACD Losing Strength: The MACD line remains in positive territory, confirming that the bullish trend is still intact. However, the distance between the MACD line and the signal line has narrowed, and the histogram bars are shrinking. This shows that momentum is weakening and a bearish crossover could be imminent.

  • Price Action at Resistance: Recent candles show rejection near the highs, with intraday pushes above 24,300 being sold into. This suggests sellers are defending the resistance zone aggressively.

  • Volume Dynamics: Trading volume has not expanded during this push higher. The absence of strong buying pressure near resistance is another red flag, as healthy breakouts are usually accompanied by rising volume.

Takeaway (Daily): The daily chart points toward caution. With the index overbought and showing rejection at resistance, the probability of a pullback toward the 23,800–24,000 support zone is elevated.

Weekly Chart Analysis: A Long-Term Resistance in Sight

Zooming out to the weekly chart, the picture reveals the Nasdaq 100 is testing a trendline resistance that has defined its uptrend for years.

  • Stoch RSI Signals Overextension: The Stoch RSI on the weekly timeframe is sitting at 93.52, also in overbought territory. While the line has not crossed downward yet, the current level reflects stretched momentum that historically has not been sustainable for long.

  • MACD Still Bullish, but Watch Closely: The weekly MACD remains positive, with the MACD line above the signal line and green histogram bars still visible. However, the narrowing gap suggests bullish strength is peaking. A downturn here would reinforce the bearish divergence already visible on the Stoch RSI.

  • Price Action Against Trendline Resistance: The index is now pressing against a critical long-term resistance zone around 24,200–24,400. This trendline has acted as a ceiling multiple times in the past, often triggering corrections. Breaking above with conviction would mark a significant bullish development, but failure to do so could spark a sharp retracement.

  • Volume Patterns: Weekly volume is not expanding, similar to the daily chart. This indicates that institutional buyers may not be fully committed at these levels, leaving the rally vulnerable to reversal.

Takeaway (Weekly): While the broader trend remains bullish, the Nasdaq is at a technical inflection point. Overbought conditions and the proximity to long-term resistance mean that the index faces a binary choice: either confirm a breakout with strong volume or retreat toward 22,800–23,200 support.

Macro Backdrop: Fed’s Hawkish Cut and Stagflation Fears

The technical cautionary signals align with a macroeconomic environment clouded by uncertainty. The Federal Reserve recently delivered a 25 basis point rate cut, but the decision has been labeled a hawkish cut. The paradox lies in the Fed lowering rates while inflation remains above target, retail sales stay robust, and the labor market shows cracks.

  • Inflation Elevated: Core inflation remains sticky, well above the Fed’s 2% target. Cutting rates under such conditions risks unanchoring inflation expectations, potentially fueling further price pressures.

  • Retail Sales Strong: August retail sales came in well above expectations, rising 0.6% MoM versus a 0.2% consensus, with the control group up 0.7% and YoY sales accelerating to 5.0% from 4.1%. Strong demand suggests that consumer spending is not cooling, a scenario that complicates inflation control.

  • Labor Market Weakening: The main justification for the cut appears to be cracks in the job market. Hiring has slowed, unemployment is ticking up, and companies are hesitating on new job postings. This deterioration may have forced the Fed’s hand, even at the risk of appearing inconsistent.

The market reaction has been telling:

  • Equities turned mixed, with tech stocks underperforming.

  • Bond yields rose despite the rate cut, reflecting investor skepticism about inflation risks.

  • Commodities like oil and silver fell, pricing in growth concerns.

  • The dollar strengthened modestly, signaling a risk-off sentiment.

This strange alignment, hawkish rhetoric, dovish action, and skeptical market response, has raised the specter of stagflation, where high inflation meets slowing growth and rising unemployment.

Technicals Meet Fundamentals: Why It Matters for Nasdaq

The Nasdaq 100 is particularly sensitive to shifts in monetary policy and macroeconomic expectations. Growth and tech stocks dominate the index, and their valuations are heavily influenced by interest rate dynamics.

  • If inflation stays high while rates are cut, bond yields may remain elevated, compressing valuation multiples for tech.

  • If retail sales continue strong, consumer demand could support revenues for tech-adjacent sectors, but margins may suffer if inflation erodes purchasing power.

  • If stagflation takes hold, history suggests tech stocks will underperform as both earnings growth slows and discount rates remain unfavorable.

Against this backdrop, the Nasdaq testing long-term resistance is not just a technical event, it is a stress test of whether markets truly believe the Fed can navigate this delicate balance.

Investor Implications

For swing traders and institutional investors alike, the current setup offers both opportunity and risk:

  • Bullish Scenario: If the Nasdaq breaks above 24,400 with rising volume, it could signal renewed confidence in growth sectors, potentially unlocking a rally toward 25,000–25,500. This would require investors to believe the Fed can stimulate the economy without stoking inflation further.

  • Bearish Scenario: Failure to clear resistance, coupled with overbought signals and stagflation fears, could trigger a correction toward 23,000 or even lower. In this case, market sentiment would shift decisively toward skepticism about the Fed’s credibility and the sustainability of corporate earnings.

  • Neutral/Wait-and-See: Some investors may choose to stay defensive, holding cash or rotating into sectors less sensitive to growth and inflation dynamics, such as utilities or defensive staples.

A Moment of Truth

The Nasdaq 100 is standing at a crossroads. Daily and weekly technical indicators suggest the index is overbought and vulnerable to correction, particularly as it presses against long-term resistance. At the same time, the Federal Reserve’s hawkish cut has raised fears of stagflation, adding a layer of macro uncertainty that could exacerbate volatility.

For now, the message is caution. Whether the Nasdaq breaks out or pulls back will depend not only on chart patterns but also on how investors interpret the Fed’s resolve in the face of elevated inflation and weakening labor markets. In an environment where technicals and fundamentals both flash warning signs, discipline and risk management become paramount.

The coming weeks may well decide whether the Nasdaq’s climb continues or whether the rally stalls under the weight of policy contradictions and economic fragility.



Disclaimer:
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading and investing in financial markets involve risks, including the potential loss of capital. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The views expressed here are based on technical analysis and are not a guarantee of future market performance.

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