Total Pageviews

Reddit (RDDT) Technical Analysis for Swing Traders: Assessing Momentum and Key Support Zones

on
0

Markets Brace for Upcoming Economic Reports: April 21–25 Preview

on

 

U.S. Weekly Economic Preview (April 21–25): Key Data Points to Watch

As the Federal Reserve approaches a critical decision window, the upcoming week offers a slate of high-impact data releases that could shape expectations for monetary policy into early summer. From housing and manufacturing to consumer sentiment, each indicator will be closely monitored as investors evaluate whether recent signs of economic cooling are temporary or part of a broader trend.

Below is a breakdown of the upcoming economic events for the week of April 22–25, followed by a summary of the current macroeconomic backdrop and its implications.

📅 Tuesday, April 22: Quiet Start, but Fed Speakers Could Move Markets

While no consensus-based economic releases are scheduled for Tuesday, several Federal Reserve officials are slated to deliver public remarks. These speeches, though often routine, carry the potential to influence market sentiment—particularly if policymakers hint at any shift in the Fed’s current wait-and-see stance.

Given recent speculation surrounding potential rate cuts, investors will be parsing their language carefully for any indications of changing bias, especially in light of recent disinflationary trends and slower demand indicators.

📅 Wednesday, April 23: PMIs and New Home Sales in Focus

Wednesday brings a mix of forward-looking and rate-sensitive indicators, led by the preliminary S&P Global PMIs for April and New Home Sales.

S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Apr)

  • Previous: 54.4

  • Consensus: 52.9

The services sector, which makes up the majority of U.S. economic activity, is expected to show a modest slowdown. A reading near 52.9 would still indicate expansion but would also reflect weaker momentum compared to March.

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Apr)

  • Previous: 50.2

  • Consensus: -

Though consensus estimates are currently unavailable, any print below 50 would suggest contraction in the manufacturing sector—a key concern given recent regional factory surveys showing significant weakness.

S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (Apr)

  • Previous: 53.5

  • Consensus: -

The composite index, which blends manufacturing and services, will offer a more holistic snapshot of private-sector activity.

New Home Sales (Mar)

  • Previous: 0.676M

  • Consensus: 0.680M

New Home Sales are expected to rise slightly, but the broader housing market continues to grapple with affordability constraints and high mortgage rates. This release may also help gauge whether the recent dip in Housing Starts is an early sign of cooling or merely a pause.

New Home Sales are particularly sensitive to interest rate shifts and often serve as a barometer of consumer confidence and credit availability. Any shortfall here could reinforce the case for easing, especially given the Fed’s focus on housing market fragility.


 

📅 Thursday, April 24: Durable Goods and Labor Market Indicators

Thursday’s data slate is more data-heavy, with multiple reports that could weigh heavily on market expectations.

Durable Goods Orders MoM (Mar)

  • Previous: 0.9%

  • Consensus: 1.8%

A solid increase is expected, though the headline number may be influenced by transportation orders. Investors will be more focused on the underlying trend.

Durable Goods Orders Ex-Transportation MoM (Mar)

  • Previous: 0.7%

  • Consensus: -0.1%

This ex-transportation figure is expected to contract slightly, which could signal weakening business investment—a concern for broader GDP growth.

Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 19)

  • Previous: 215K

  • Consensus: -

Although no consensus is available at the moment, continuing claims near or above 215K would align with recent trends showing labor market stability without overheating.

Existing Home Sales (Mar)

  • Previous: 4.26M

  • Consensus: 4.12M

A decline in Existing Home Sales is anticipated, which would reinforce the message from last week’s housing starts report. Mortgage rates remain elevated, and buyer fatigue appears to be increasing.

Existing Home Sales MoM (Mar)

  • Previous: +4.2%

  • Consensus: -3.0%

This would mark a meaningful reversal in momentum, suggesting that earlier gains were more anomalous than sustainable.

📅 Friday, April 25: Consumer Sentiment to Close the Week

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (Apr)

  • Previous: 57.0

  • Consensus: 50.7

The final reading is expected to confirm a sharp deterioration in consumer sentiment. This drop may reflect not only inflation fatigue but also uncertainty about labor prospects and interest rates. Historically, sentiment has proven to be a forward-looking indicator of consumption patterns.

Macro Backdrop: The Case for a Fed Pivot Is Strengthening

While the upcoming data will play a key role in shaping expectations, it's crucial to contextualize it within the broader macroeconomic environment:

  • Inflation Is Cooling: Both CPI and PPI reports for April pointed to disinflation, with core readings showing subdued momentum. This opens the door for policy easing.

  • Control Group Retail Sales Are Weakening: The March control group—a critical subset that feeds into GDP—came in soft, signaling fading consumer demand beneath the surface of headline figures.

  • Housing Is Turning Cautious: March Housing Starts dropped significantly, and this week’s expected decline in Existing Home Sales suggests further softening in this interest rate-sensitive sector.

  • Manufacturing Outlook Is Deteriorating: The April Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index plummeted to -26.4, reflecting severe pessimism not captured in broader PMIs yet.

  • Labor Market Is Stable, Not Hot: Weekly jobless claims remain within historical norms. The absence of excessive wage growth removes a key inflationary threat.

  • ECB Has Already Moved: The European Central Bank cut rates on April 17, citing disinflation and stagnant growth. This raises pressure on the Fed to avoid unnecessary policy divergence.

Market Implications: Watch for Policy Repricing

Depending on the data’s tone this week, traders may begin to reprice the probability of a rate cut as early as the June or July FOMC meeting. A string of softer-than-expected releases—particularly in durable goods and home sales—could accelerate those expectations, pressuring Treasury yields lower and supporting equity markets.

Conversely, if the data show resilience, the Fed may feel justified in maintaining its cautious stance, even if easing later in the year remains likely.

Looking Ahead: A Crucial Data Week for the Fed’s Path

This week’s economic data carries greater-than-usual significance. While none of the releases individually determine policy, together they will form the narrative heading into the Fed’s next policy meeting. With inflation appearing contained and demand slowing, the onus is now on the Fed to determine whether the soft landing window remains open—or is closing fast.

If the upcoming reports confirm continued disinflation and slowing demand without signs of labor market overheating, the Fed may find itself with both the cover and the urgency to act sooner than markets currently expect.






Enjoyed this article?
Take your trading further with exclusive premium content, including stock picks, fundamental analysis, and DCF valuations — available to purchase individually.
👉 Darrisman's – Access the full content now!



Other related post

Cooling Inflation, Housing Weakness, Manufacturing Slump: The Fed’s Window to Act Is Now

IEA Slashes Oil Demand Forecast Ahead of Key EIA Report: What It Means for Markets and Policy

Cooling Prices and Subdued Factory Activity Support a Dovish Fed Policy Path

 Airline Stocks vs Oil Prices: Tracking the Correlation Since 2008 (DAL, LUV, AAL)



Comments

Post a Comment